National statisticians published their final estimate of inflation for the past year on Friday morning. In 2021, it had not exceeded 1.6%.
Inflation will indeed have reached record levels in 2022. This Friday morning, INSEE indicated that price increases had reached 5.2% on average over the last twelve months, after 1.6% in 2021. In December alone, inflation fell slightly to 5.9% year on year, while it stood at 6.2% in November 2022. Price increases were lower at the start of the year last year. year, hence the difference between the level of inflation in December 2022 (5.9%) and the annual average for 2022 (5.2%).
Over the past year as a whole,the rise in inflation results from an acceleration in energy prices (+23.1% after 10.5% in 2021) and food (+6.8% after +0.6%), and to a lesser extent manufactured goods and services, which grew by 3%“, deciphers the Insee. Another indicator, core inflation, which excludes transitory price variations to focus on deep inflationary trends, has also not escaped a very sharp rise, rising from 1.1% on average over 2021 to 3 .9% in 2022.
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The year that has just ended has been particularly turbulent in terms of inflation: prices soared almost continuously between July 2021 and July 2022, with a sharp acceleration in the first half of the year, generated by the explosion in the prices of energy. The second part of the year was more mixed: a slowdown at the start of the school year, then a peak in October, followed by a lull until December.
Inflation expected to rise in early 2023
Disappearance of rebates at the pump granted by the State and TotalEnergies, reduced tariff shield on gas and electricity… The first months of 2023 will be marked by new increases in energy prices. What weigh on the budget of economic actors, while fuel prices logically jumped in early January, following the removal of rebates. In its latest macroeconomic projections, published in December, the Banque de France wrote to expect a peak in inflation “in the first semester», between 7% and 8%. For its part, INSEE was counting on a peak of “7% over one year in January and February“, then maintained by the rise in the price of tobacco and that of food products.
However, this acceleration should remain temporary, as energy prices are well below the record levels observed in recent months. Barring any surprises, 2023 will be the year of a gradual slowdown in price increases, according to experts. The various projections also agree on the less and less significant weight of energy in the rise in prices, while food products, services and manufactured goods have taken over in the overall indicator.
The Banque de France thus expects a “decline, gradual but clear, over the rest of the year“, banking on an inflation rate of around 4% at the end of the year in France. For national statisticians, prices go “gradually recede“, after the first trimester, until reaching “approximately +5.5% in June“. The European Commission, for its part, expects inflation to be set at 4.4% for Paris this year.
Same observation for the ECB: “HICP inflation is expected to remain extremely strong over the coming months before moderating steadily through 2023, driven by energy-related base effects and easing upstream tensions, and supported by policy measures taken by public authorities“, cautiously advance the analysts of the Central Bank. In the euro zone, the rate should drop below the 4% mark by the end of the year. As in 2022, France would be among the nations least affected by soaring prices. With a cost for public finances.
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