The Cac 40 misses its rebound and remains anchored in the "bear market"

The Cac 40 misses its rebound and remains anchored in the “bear market”

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Stock market operators believed in it until the last minute! Unfortunately, the Bedroom 40 ended below its float level at 5,882.65 points, down 0.06% on the day, after hitting a high of 5,974.06 points. The volume of transactions totaled 7.77 billion euros thanks to the technical phenomenon of the “Four Witches”, which marks the expiry of futures contracts and options on indices and equities.

On the eve of the weekend, the Parisian index remains stuck below the symbolic threshold of 5,900 points. Above all, he is unable to extricate himself from the “bear market” in which he fell on Thursday evening. It shows a drop of more than 20% -20.34% exactly – compared to its last peak of January 5 at 7,384.86 points. The weekly results are disappointing: -4.92%, the worst performance since the beginning of March and the Russian offensive in Ukraine.

Investors are trying to assess the impact of the general trend of raising key interest rates around the world on growth, both in developed countries and in emerging economies, which are bearing the full brunt of the rise in interest rates and the subsequent appreciation of the dollar.

What impact of monetary policies on growth?

After the European Central Bank (ECB), which opened last week to a rise in the cost of money in July, the US Federal Reserve toughened its tone on Wednesday evening, raising interest rates by 75 basis points. Fed-funds, the sharpest tightening since 1994. Other central banks, such as the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England, have also stepped on the accelerator and others will no doubt follow. It remains to be seen whether the pace of monetary tightening is the right one. The question is crucial.

We do not know whether an acceleration in the tightening of monetary policy can affect demand too strongly and cut growth too suddenly, going so far as to cause a recession. At the same time, if the rise is too gradual, and therefore if real interest rates do not rise quickly enough, there is a risk not only of allowing inflationary pressures to become entrenched, but also, in the long term, of weakening in a lasting manner the growth “, underlines Sebastian Paris Horvitz, director of research at La Banque Postale Asset Management (LBPAM).

BNP Paribas picks up ABN Amro

In the United States, the latest activity indicators were disappointing, pointing to a slowdown in the pace of growth. In May, industrial production rose only 0.2%, against +0.4% expected by the market, while the Philly Fed index, measuring activity conditions in the Philadelphia area, fell unexpectedly at -3.3 in June, from 2.6 in May, falling to its lowest level since May 2020.

On the values ​​front, the optical giant EssilorLuxottica (+3.8%) announced a share buyback program involving a maximum number of 2.5 million shares, or 0.6% of the capital. The program begins this Friday and ends on August 31. The repurchased shares are intended to be allocated or transferred to employees and corporate officers of the group.

In terms of mergers and acquisitions, BNP Paribas (+0.46%) has expressed interest in a possible takeover of the bank ABN Amrowhich flew under the Dutch flag during the financial crisis, reports the financial news agency Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the discussions.

Analysts at work on aeronautics and air

Among the analysts’ notes, Exane BNP Paribas reiterated its opinion of “outperformance” on the engine manufacturer Saffron (+ 1.56%) to aim for a target price of 34 euros, while Kepler Cheuvreux raised its recommendation on the title Lisa (+5.15%) from “keep” to “purchase”, emphasizing that the resumption of the post-Covid activity of the aeronautical subcontractor is not yet integrated into the prices. Finally, in a note to customers, Jefferies said a further delay in Boeing 777X certification could boost demand for the A350 byAirbus (+1.20%). In the related airline sector, Oddo BHF went from “underperformance” to “neutral” on the stock Air France-KLM (+1.12%). The analyst in charge of the value believes that the summer and the off-season will be strong due to strong pent-up demand. The ” underestimated transformation plan [et] the partnership with CMA CGM supports volumes and yield “says the expert.

Among other analyst ratings, Societe Generale downgraded Eurofins Scientific (-3.49%) from “purchase” to “hold”, and statement Klepierre (+3.19%) from “sell” to “keep”.

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