Central

Will the risk of recession remain in the hands of central banks?

Will the risk of recession remain in the hands of central banks?

The bond markets have turned too quickly away from the subject of inflation, and are more interested in the prospects for growth. Global central banks are aggressively tightening policy to rein in decades-high inflation, sparking fears of an impending economic recession. The latest US inflation data has slowed slightly, but is still far too high …

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Energy crisis in Europe

The recession in the central scenario

Pending a decline in inflation in early 2023, growth prospects are clearly on the downside. In July, the cyclical indicators in Europe and the United States accentuated their decline to the point of approaching or crossing, in some cases, the threshold for entering recession. The deterioration affects the business climate, household confidence, consumer spending, activity …

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Inflation XI: A central bank must have the freedom to be able to surprise the markets

Inflation XI: A central bank must have the freedom to be able to surprise the markets

In recent years, the SNB has stubbornly refused to adopt the communication strategy of the major central banks. These not only explain the reasons for an interest rate decision, but also give visibility on the monetary policy planned for the future. However, this “forward guidance” of the markets has obviously caused great irritation lately. In …

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Central banks will continue their restrictive monetary policy

Central banks will continue their restrictive monetary policy

“The sharp rise in interest rates has led to a general correction of valuations in the financial markets. Added to this are concerns about a hard landing in the economy, ”explains Matthias Geissbühler. The first half of the year was disappointing for investors. All investment categories fell significantly in value, with the exception of gold …

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